7 Trends That Will Transform the Church in 2024

7 Trends That Will Transform the Church in 2024

I came across an article by Carey Nieuw Hof, a prominent church leader with a wealth of books and articles.

After the Covid-19 pandemic, even though it has been several years, it still affects churches around the world, including Thai churches. The face of the Church ministry has changed, but churches that are not ready to adapt may face major problems.

Although this article is based primarily on information from churches in America, the situation in Thailand is very similar.

Hopefully this article will stimulate the interest of many servants to change their methods of serving to be in line with the current trends because when we catch fish, we must choose the appropriate equipment.

7 Trends That Will Transform the Church in 2024 (Carey Nieuw Hof)

2024 is a pivotal year for church leaders, and with these changing trends, it could be a pivotal year for your church too.

It's time to get ready for 7 new trends that are starting to take off.

There was a huge wave of job resignations in America before COVID passed, but the church has also been affected by this. As a church leader, if you can make it through this, you will likely be around for many years to come.

So, after a year of confusion, tension and pain for many church leaders, it’s time to look ahead. The horizon may not be all pretty, but it’s at least in sight.

This year we are focusing on established churches (flat membership numbers) that are starting to decline, where the core church followers are millennials and Gen Z who are now adults, where new technologies (like AI) are being used, and where Megachurches and Pastors are all new forms of ministry.

7 Church Trends You and Your Team Should Watch for in 2024

1. The number of “established” churches is declining.

The return of people to church in person instead of online has had an impact over the past few years on both leaders and members, especially for established churches rather than those that are still not.

According to a recent survey, established churches are dying. Nearly 90% of churches are either growing or declining. Only 12% of respondents said their church was “ settled ” – not attracting new members or having a steady decline in membership.

Another way of thinking is that the more active churches are, the more they gain momentum, while the less active ones are losing people just as quickly.

What are the risks?

It is not uncommon for past church leaders to lead stagnant churches that have not grown or declined significantly in years or decades.

That means church leaders will continue to work “as usual” without any changes to Sunday worship, budget, programs, or discipleship strategies.

Naturally, over time, this instability does not produce positive results. Worse, it gives church members false confidence that they can initiate change at any time.

There is no more time.

Is your church currently growing or declining? Almost all find themselves not growing but declining. 54% of churches are showing moderate to significant decline in membership, meaning more than half of churches in America are showing signs of future problems.

The good news is that 33% of churches report “some” or “significant” growth, which is deeply encouraging.

But deep down, it's not growth that comes from conversion (which would be great), it's growth from people moving from other churches (yes, that's true). Many people leave the church because they're falling away from the faith, but many more simply move from a dying church to a more vibrant one.

The church consolidation trend I outlined in 2020 is now happening in full force.

What should I do?

That means nothing is more urgent than the need to change now.

In a declining and dying church, change, renewal and reform must be swift, or the future of many churches will be bleak.

For growing churches, it's different. First, the changes that leadership has made in the last few years are what are fueling the growth. They are reaping what they sow, and that's good news.

It is extremely important to understand where growth comes from so that you can reach more people effectively. These growing churches will become the backbone of the future church.

The thing to keep in mind is that even if your church is growing rapidly, it is important not to neglect reaching out to the unchurched (the unconverted).

Attracting old Christians is not the success of your ministry. Reaching people in the world for Christ is the success.

The bottom line is that you (the church) are either growing or declining today. Stability is unlikely to be achieved in a culture that is changing rapidly.

2. Millennials are the new backbone of the church.

(Millennials were born between 1981 and 1996, which is the age where their careers are stable and successful.)

One significant change in the past few years is that millennials are entering church faster and have outpaced other age groups in 2019.

Millennial churchgoers are on the rise (especially among non-whites).

According to a Barna survey, 30% of white millennials said they attend church regularly after COVID-19, up from 26% before COVID-19. But non-white millennials are even more enthusiastic about returning to church, at 40%, up from 31% before COVID-19.

Part of the reason is that boomers (70 and older) aren't coming back to church as much as we'd hoped.

“Boomers seem to be retiring from the church,” one megachurch pastor said. “They find themselves sipping on their second cup of coffee on the couch and playing golf on Sunday mornings! (I never thought about that.)” In fact, neither of us thought it would turn out this way.

According to Barna, 31% of Boomers attended church regularly before 2020, but only 22% have returned to church since COVID-19.

Part of it is normal because as boomers age, mobility and health become more important factors, and the warning signs have been clear for years, but we just ignore them.

What are the risks?

In addition to the post-COVID return to church, another area that has been greatly impacted by this trend is service and giving. Historically, boomers have carried the churches both financially and volunteer allies.

As boomers move away from the church, it is imperative that leaders embrace the reality that we are now the millennial generation, which brings with it some nuances that church leaders will need to quickly master.

First, millennials are less likely to be committed to serving “all the way” than previous generations. They have busy lives, and their children are taking up a lot of their time and resources, as are their careers.

Second, millennials serve differently than boomers or Gen Xers, and it’s true that millennials give more than boomers.

However, millennials and younger Gen Zs (see Trend 3 for details) show a more “full-fledged” approach to discipleship than other generations. I’m not saying that Boomers and Gen Xers aren’t serious about discipleship, but rather that their discipleship is a combination of church attendance, giving, and service.

The church model itself makes giving and service the “goal” of discipleship and is also a way for us to know that members are engaged.

For millennials and Gen Z, giving and serving are not the goal of discipleship, but rather are byproducts of the strong faith that takes over their lives.

It is possible to say that it is the same story but with different words and different interpretations. However, as time goes by in the future, it will not be just a matter of interpretation.

What should I do?

While you don't want to give up on Boomers entirely, and you still want to honor them for their service, you need to understand that the oldest millennial will be 43 in 2024. It's time to treat millennials, along with all of Gen X and Gen Z (who are older), as the new core of the church.

For all these reasons, a church whose goal is to make people disciples of Jesus wholeheartedly should be “less” concerned with the next generation’s giving and service than a church whose goal is to give and service.

Likewise, the way we call millennials to ministry should be more elevating, which will yield a better response than de-elevating, selecting churches or hoping more people will step up.

When it comes to giving, calling people to full-life discipleship requires a full call of the body and heart, which will create a spirit of generosity in the next generation.

And we also need to talk about intergenerational wealth transfer, which falls into two main areas.

First, as Boomers age and many begin to move on, their descendants, Gen Xers and Millennials, will inherit the largest wealth transfer in human history. Church leaders would do well to have conversations with Boomers about the importance of responsible wealth management, or the church could be left behind by both givers and receivers.

Second, church leaders should create strategies to engage millennials as key donors for future missions and plans to help them see Jesus as a priority, as these people are already accustomed to giving to social causes they care about.

3. Gen Z will begin to restructure the church.

Just as millennials have grown up, the oldest Gen Z will be 27 in 2024. Many of them are no longer children. They are not “school children.” They are adults. And in 2024, you will start to see Gen Z coming in and reshaping the church.

In my previous article, I talked about five characteristics of Gen Z worship. The bottom line is that the church of the future will likely be less flashy and showy and more relationship-driven and genuine. Ultimately, worship will be led by the heart, not the head.

In addition, if Gen Z wants to serve, it will come from believing wholeheartedly. Unlike their parents who saw Christianity as going to church, giving, and serving,  Gen Z is not interested in being a Christian without thinking too much. They want to follow Jesus with full confidence. Going to church, giving, and serving are byproducts of their full faith.

What are the risks?

Five years ago, I said that phasing out the attraction and incentive model would be the new trend for churches in the future. Yet in 2024, many churches are still using some form of attraction and incentive models. As a result, more churches are not growing and are declining in membership.

No new patterns have emerged yet, but I suspect that the massive revival at Ashbury in 2023, and the immediate mass baptisms, will indicate a direction for the future.

(In that two-week period, nearly 50,000 people gathered at Ashbury University in America to pray, sparked by digital illumination.)

Gen Z is a generation hungry for God, hungry for hope, and tired of hype. If you continue to run your church the “old way,” you risk losing an entire generation committed to following Jesus.

The challenge for church leaders is that while there are still a small number of Gen Zer’s who are committed and fully committed to the church, how do we get them to turn unconverted Gen Zer’s into believers?

Gen Z has created a wonderful culture of discipleship, but this culture also needs to lead to evangelism, and it can be done, but there can be polarizing dynamics and antagonisms in the church that I don’t see right now, and I hope it doesn’t.

What should I do?

The best strategy for engaging millennials is simple: Stop trying to “get to” them or “speak for them.” Instead, invite them to your leadership table and let them make plans and decisions.

Gen Z doesn’t want to sit at the leadership table as a decoration. They want to have a say and make decisions, and I think they deserve that right.

The best way for old leaders to catch up is to bring in new generations and let them shape the future.

With the average senior pastor in the church in America turning 60 this year, it’s time to let the next generation lead.

4. Digital elements are increasingly important in-service delivery.

A clear call throughout the church in recent years has been that the ministry should be improved.

But what no one talks about is that very few churches have a systematic plan for their digital ministry to make disciples. Church leaders have yet to nail this down but are simply pulling people together and figuring out what to do next.

But there are still a handful of churches and organizations that have used digital technology to produce amazing resources and make their ministry work very effectively.

Churches like Church home and Life. Church reaches thousands of young people by connecting them through websites and apps, and we’ve seen tens of thousands of people come together in their communities, all powered by what’s being built in the digital world.

One megachurch pastor told me he sees nearly 30,000 prayer requests a week via mobile apps at his sister churches. Digital ministry will eventually become permanent and integral and will be an area where many churches will invest heavily.

Finally, there is John Mark Comer. In our day, he is one of the few people who is actively advancing the cause of discipleship and the Rule of Life, but his discipleship resources and materials are all digital. On his website, Practicing the Way, his digital resources have sparked face-to-face interactions, people are coming together in community and participating in ministry.

What are the risks?

I've written about the hybrid (online + onsite) church trend for years (I omitted it this year because it's become the new normal), yet many churches are still flouting the idea, limiting their online presence to drive attendance. Digital hesitation is even greater when it comes to discipleship.

To put it bluntly, if you are going to use your online platform only as a medium for evangelism or as a tool for outreach to increase membership, but neglect to use it to drive discipleship, that would be foolishness.

Soon you will be able to say without argument, “If your discipleship strategy does not include a digital network, then you do not have a discipleship strategy.”

Note: Digital delivery system is the collaboration of members on online platforms, such as planning, coordination, meeting, system installation, ordering, etc.

That's right. Although digital channels are the medium that pushes people to meet in the community, it is the digital network that accelerates the process of working in the community.

Digital systems are many times more cost-effective than analog.

What should I do?

You should start thinking about how your church can use digital platforms to cultivate discipleship, not just to broadcast worship or reach a larger audience.

Then invest the budget and staff you need to make it happen, and don’t pressure yourself to start over because there are plenty of resources available online.

5. Extreme political polarization will stimulate short-term (but not long-term) church growth.

Over the last few years, a small group of conservative pastors have been growing their churches rapidly by taking sides in the American culture wars (e.g. free abortion, LGBT issues) and professing polarizing political stances, such as anti-COVID vaccine policies, etc. (To be fair, progressive pastors have sometimes taken tough stances as well, but it has done little to grow their churches.)

Since 2024 is an election year for the US President and members of Congress, political partisanship can be expected to peak in November 2024, when church leaders hope that the candidate or because they support will win the election.

What are the risks?

As soon as you dive into polarizing politics (or any political conversation that has very narrow views), you make at least 50% of the people you're trying to reach feel like they're on the opposite side of you.

This is one thing the church does that is not in the New Testament and does not help evangelism in the long run. If you want to turn young voters off you, turn the pulpit into a political slogan.

Let me summarize an excellent article from The Atlantic magazine that suggests that taking a strong political stance in the current political climate can grow your church in the short term, but the author argues that ultimately introducing political stance is poisoning the church (in this case evangelical Protestant churches), with which I sadly disagree.

What should I do?

It is easy to say that pastors are “brave” for choosing sides with social conflicts or openly supporting political parties, but it is more prudent to question whether it is truly brave.

A study by a scholar named Chris Bail from Duke University found that just 6% of extremist comments on social media spark 73% of all online discussions (thanks to algorithms). He also pointed out that most people tend to be moderate, not extremist.

What if preaching about social conflicts wasn't brave?

What if the bravery in this era meant we acted as a separate movement from mainstream culture instead of its mouthpiece?

If we move the calendar forward ten years, the church of the future will be made up of Christians who talk and act like Jesus rather than the politicians they voted for.

Many church leaders, both independent and young Christians, are close to discovering this truth. They don’t see the church as a place to find ideology or politics, but as a place to come to Jesus.

Church leaders who point them toward Jesus will be the leaders of the growing church in the next generation.

6. AI adoption will become the norm for growing churches.

One of the biggest news stories of 2023 is that people are rapidly adopting AI. Let me explain further.

Data from an organization called Glo shows that nearly every sector is embracing AI rapidly and widely, except in the church, where leaders have been dismissive of AI and preached about how it should be condemned. So far, only 19% of church leaders say they use AI on a daily or weekly basis.

This is about to change, and it's changing fast.

As 2024 approaches, many small and medium-sized businesses are racing to develop new software that will help churches take full advantage of AI, and even traditional companies and brands are developing AI integrations into the software they sell.

This year, nearly every growing church will be using AI to reach more people, to create unique messages, to help us better understand measurement factors, and to create resources that support the sermon, such as study guides, social media posts, and more. By the end of the year, we will be amazed at the number of new technologies being created and churches will be able to tap into to help their mission succeed.

What are the risks?

Resistance to AI will gradually decline significantly as AI is integrated into traditional software and social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, etc., and AI will eventually become the norm.

Although there are still some resistances, AI adoption is becoming more and more mainstream.

Even though I say AI is definitely coming, this AI will make humans start to wonder if we will survive or not because we do not fully understand what we are creating or using, and there will be many unintended consequences.

It can be said that this large AI ship has already sailed out of port and will not turn back to port again.

What should I do?

Smart church leaders will use AI ethically in their mission outreach efforts. They will study AI in depth to understand its impact.

While larger churches have the resources to invest in full-time staff and experts to implement AI, smaller church leaders will need to turn to two sources of resources: business leaders who are already using AI in their businesses, and young leaders who are often willing to volunteer their time to help smaller church leaders understand how to use AI in their ministry.

The final thing every church leader needs to realize about AI is that whether you like it or not, it is changing the lives of everyone you serve or expect to preach to.

Some people will lose their jobs, but AI will have more impact than just careers, as many people who are addicted to pornography are having virtual relationships with AI sabots (this is not a realistic idea, but it is happening).

And there are those who are looking for ways to enhance their superhuman potential to extend their lives. People are losing touch with their real-world communities and their faith in absolute truth. From a spiritual perspective, the challenges life has presented themselves as impossible to avoid in 2024. Brilliant leaders will understand and address the challenges that AI will bring to our culture.

Finally, in an age of deepfakes, lies, cheating and deception, authenticity and deep personal connections are harder to find than ever before. The good news is that if your ministry is authentic and tangible and speaks the truth, your church will be uniquely authentic to the world.

In 2024, the church of truth will no longer be an exaggeration, but a great power, and its ability to extract the truth from this AI madness will be more important than ever.

7. There will be a continuous stream of new pastors in megachurches.

It is sad that we have seen pastors in Megachurch resigning because of scandals, but there are many pastors who have done a good job and quietly stepped down after decades of ministry. Of course, good things like this are not reported in the news even though they do exist.

One story that rarely makes the news is the new generation of leaders replacing the old generation, aged 40 and under. Some of them are Gen X leaders in their early 40s, but the majority are millennials. Interestingly, I can't even name five new leaders, because they're using new management styles that are completely different from the old ones. Those new styles are:

• Reduce vertical commands,less commands from above, but emphasize consensus from people at all levels in the organization.
• Less focus on building your own fame,using online media and social media, and more focus on local missions.
• Don't just think about making a name for yourself in the wider society but be more interested in being a good leader in your own context.
• Less focus on bringing back the pastand more focus on creating a new future.
• Don't focus on the size of the Church, focus on the health of the church. But it turns out that this has led many new leaders to lead churches that are larger than their previous pastors.

I have personally met hundreds of new pastors from large and megachurches and I love them. Obviously, they are being tested and faced with the same obstacles that their predecessors faced, but I feel that these new pastors have learned from the past and represent the future of the church.

What are the risks?

A new generation of church leaders is quietly blossoming before our eyes, and it’s a beautiful thing indeed.

This new leadership style is what resonates with millennials and Gen Z, and it’s creating a new model for what the pastor of the future should be like.

What should I do?

As I mentioned earlier, by 2024, most senior pastors in America will be in their 60s. This is a growing succession crisis. It's time for those who are stepping down to stop looking for "successors" and instead take the time to learn from other churches that have successfully transitioned their leadership.

If we move into the future with open arms to different church leaders, the chances of the church being stronger and reaching new people will increase.

It is so exciting to see a new generation of people stepping up to serve in the church. I hope that in 2024, the turnover of new leaders in the churches will continue.